Wo Ist Der Coronavirus In Deutschland Überall

George W. Warrena Department von Geography, king’s College London, London, UKCorrespondencegeorge.warren
Jamie K. Wardmanb Nottingham University unternehmen School, University of Nottingham, Nottingham, UK
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Abstract

European lockdown strategies over the winter von 2020 schutz brought right into sharp relief ns need zum effective strategies kommen sie reduce die rate of covid-19 transmission and lower die rate of hospitalisations und deaths. Understanding precisely how europe nations have arrived punkt this point, und the process by which they schutz done this, zu sein key to learning constructive lessons for future pandemic danger management. Happen together endure from across five European nations (the UK, France, Germany, Sweden und Switzerland), this record outlines what has actually occurred betwee September 2020 and mid-January 2021. Our analysis draws out number of themes important to understanding ns different national risk monitoring approaches adopted, namely: ns extent zu which lessons were learned or overlooked from the zuerst wave des the pandemic; ns relationship betwee science and policy; ns speed und responsiveness von policy decisions; and differing levels von reliance on separation, personal, instance responsibility weil das safeguarding publicly health. Subsequently, we recommended that: there is more involvement des decision scientists und risk analysts in COVID-19 decision making, who schutz largely been missing thus far; ns epidemiological science must be complied with where possible, but wie value judgments space made this must be clearly und transparently communicated; proactive measures preventing policy hold-up should it is in followed zu reduce die rate of infection and excess deaths; federal governments must avoid confusing or inconsistent regional implementation and communication of interventions; rebuilding public trust ist key to promoting publicly compliance und support for covid19 health measures; overreliance top top individual duty as ns focus of non-pharmaceutical interventions need to be avoided; windy compliance with covid19 restrictions calls for pre-tested an easy messages; open und consistent engagement with neighborhood leaders und officials should come to be a mainstay of government efforts kommen sie help ensure continual adoption des nationwide covid-19 policy measures.

Du schaust: Wo ist der coronavirus in deutschland überall


1. Introduction

As des late January, pull close ‘one year on’ from ns World wellness Organisation’s (WHO) declaration of a public Health emergency of international Concern, there oase been 17.9 million cases of COVID-19 an the EU/EEA und over 425,000 deaths (European Centre zum Disease Prevention and Control 2021). Die United Kingdom (UK) alone passed ns grim milestone of 100,000 covid19 deaths on 26 januar (BBC nachrichten 2021c). Bei view of such amazing figures, questions have understandably been raised about the ability of European governments to effectively plan and adopt appropriate covid19 risk management strategies as die crisis has advanced while continuing fail to identify, acknowledge and learn from past mistakes (Bryce et al. 2020; Wardman 2020). Furthermore, acquisition a narrow inwardly concentrated view of covid19 public wellness requirements, while ignoring ns successes des pandemic methods adopted von other countries around ns world, has also been argued zu be responsible an part zum many avoidable deaths an Europe (Han et al. 2020; Patel und Sridhar 2020; Wardman 2020). Understanding how various European nations arrived weist this point, and what kann sein be learned from your experiences, ist therefore vital zu ensuring efficient pandemic risk monitoring moving forward. As such, risk management throughout the pandemic, especially an the second and third waves v autumn und winter 2020, need to be scrutinised to understand how ns impacts of the virus oase been so great, und what can be done to mitigate additional damages in future.

Addressing this issues, this document examines the covid19 risk monitoring strategies von 5 european nations, namely: the UK (England more specifically), France, Germany, Sweden und Switzerland. These nations oase been chosen, an part, together they correspond zu previous papers von the authors respectively on communication of the covid-19 vaccine rollout (Warren and Lofstedt 2021) and lessons learned indigenous earlier national pandemic management strategies (Wardman 2020; Wardman and Lofstedt 2020). This juncture an the health and wellness crisis deshalb offers a timely opportunity to compare the unique, and sometimes overlapping, socio-political characteristics of different risk monitoring strategies put bei place von these five nations. Bei particular, focusing comprehensive on ns time duration from around september 2020 till mid-January 2021 allows zum comparative observations to be do with die earlier period von the erste wave of coronavirus from March kommen sie June 2020, which has actually received extensive attention (see zum example Desson, Lambertz, et al. 2020; Freedman 2020; Petridou 2020; Wardman 2020; Kuhlmann et al. 2021). Die analysis presented thus aims to trace an essential similarities und differences in pandemic risk management approaches, specifically concerning: just how lessons indigenous the first wave were learned und implemented; ns relationship between science and policy bei each nation; die speed und responsiveness des policy decisions; and differing levels von attention und focus given zu individual responsibility for safeguarding people’s health.

The document proceeds as follows. First, following a chronological outline des each country policy, a brief analysis of the approach zu sein offered. Then, conclusions are drawn from a much more general analysis des common themes and approaches betwee nations identified. Finally, recommendations are offered kommen sie promote more effective COVID-19, and general pandemic risk administration strategies, an future.


2.1. Post-lockdown und summer strategy

After the first covid19 wave restrictions were lifted beginning an May, a 5-level ‘Covid alarm System’ was introduced and controlled von a new organisation, ns Joint Biosecurity Centre and Chief Medical offizier (BBC nachrichten 2020a; room Office 2020b). Prime Minister boris Johnson (2020b) announced the neu system in a press conference top top 10 May, stating that die alert levels to be ‘determined primarily von R und the number of coronavirus cases’, und that ns country was currently at level 4 transitioning to level 3. This speech deshalb introduced a confusing neu slogan ‘Stay Alert, Control ns Virus, save Lives’ instead von the initial ‘Stay hinweisen Home, Protect the NHS, save Lives’, which was extensively criticised at ns time (Mee 2020; Torjesen 2020; Wardman 2020). Restrictions so began operating hinweisen a local level und varied by bereich rather 보다 being used nationally, gift reflective von local NHS service hospital capacity zu cope with covid-19 cases (Heffer 2020). So late May also saw die Dominic Cummings debacle ‘Cummingsgate’, widely viewed as a trust-destroying event that considerably undermined to trust in, solidarity with, und perceived fairness von the federal government approach to managing covid19 (Reicher und Stott 2020; Wardman 2020).

Following a resurgence in cases an early September, neu social distancing rules were put an place in England (Cabinet Office 2020a). Ns government so announced a ‘moonshot’ plan kommen sie control spread des the viruist through a £100bn investment to facilitate fixed testing des the virologe (Iacobucci and Coombes 2020). By mid-September, roughly 20% von UK citizens were placed an enhanced restrictions punkt a regional level, especially in the north East und Manchester, with assistance from some local leaders and protestation native others, such together Manchester Mayor andy Burnham (BBC news 2020b; Wardman 2020). An mid-October, ns government carried out a three-tier national framework bei England with enhancing levels des restriction dividing die UK right into regions with various lockdown strengths regulated primarily from main government (Department of Health und Social treatment 2020), und Liverpool was the erste area in the ‘Very High Risk’ ‘Tier 3′ category (Murphy 2020). Return a national framework was introduced to ensure no disparities or inconsistencies bolzen localities, the legislation zum Tier 3 was amended only 3 days danach allowing local variation through die Health security (Coronavirus, Local covid19 Alert Level) (Very High) (England) (Amendment) regulation 2020 (2020). This resulted in differences an Tier 3 rules between Liverpool and Lancashire zum example, again increasing questions des fairness und proportionality from local leaders (Culbertson 2020).


2.2. Autumn und winter lockdown strategies

Despite the introduction des this three-tier system, case and death prices continued to increase: on 30 October there were 274 covid-19 related deaths within 28 days of testing positive und over 24,000 neu infections bei the UK (Kelly-Linden und Global wellness Security team 2020), compared with 136 deaths and over 16,000 neu cases two weeks formerly (Center weil das Systems Science and Engineering 2020). Facing pressure from bei exponentially increasing instance rate, element Minister boris Johnson (2020a) announced a new national lockdown ~ above 31 October, stating:


Our hope was that by strong neighborhood action, solid local leadership, we can get the rates von infection down where die disease was surging, and address the belästigt thereby across die whole country <…> however as we’ve deshalb seen indigenous those charts, we’ve gott to be humble bei the challenge of natur <…> and so now zu sein the time kommen sie take action because there zu sein no alternative. Indigenous Thursday until the anfang of December, you must stay punkt home.


Despite this new national lockdown, which was set to belastung four weeks start on 5 November, the UK tape-recorded its greatest number von daily covid-19 deaths due to the fact that 5 may 2020 at 696 on 26 november (Sky nachrichten 2020a). An late November, früh Minister johnson set out the covid19 ‘Winter Plan’ kommen sie be enacted weist the end of die second national lockdown, which thorough a three-tier system of restrictions to reduce the rate of covid19 transmission, to plan to belastung until the end of march 2021 (HM federal government 2020). Following a national lockdown, this tiered system allowed localised closures und restrictions on social mixing in England similar to that spread before ns second national lockdown in October, although a wenig more strict as the old system was deemed über the government’s experte scientific advisory gruppe SAGE zu be not fit to reduce ns virus rate von reproduction (R number) listed below 1 (BBC nachrichten 2020d). At the same time, the government announced the plan for the creation des ‘Christmas bubbles’ across ns UK, allowing indoor mixing and overnight stays weil das up to three separate households between 23 and 27 December (Walker et al. 2020). This originally was intended to be a momentary relaxation des rules, and on 28 December die original ‘tier’ rules would be reinstated (Walker et al. 2020).

However, after ns discovery of a new, much more transmissible variant of covid19 ‘Variant des Concern 202012/1′ and increase rate of covid-19 transmission, in additional tier, ‘Tier 4′, was introduced und put bei place in London und the South east of england on 19 December, four days before the relaxation was due zu take location (Johnson 2020c). This brought zurück the mandate weil das people kommen sie ‘Stay punkt Home’ und closed all non-essential retail and leisure activities (Johnson 2020c). This deshalb cancelled ns ‘Christmas bubbles’ rules relaxation arrangement announced von the government an these ‘Tier 4′ areas, and ‘Christmas bubbles’ to be made only possible on Christmas Day, 25 December, in non-‘Tier 4′ areas rather than betwee 23 and 27 December (BBC nachrichten 2020e).

After end 50,000 situations reported täglich for die week before, top top 4 January boris Johnson announced the introduction des the third national lockdown native 5 januar (Johnson 2021). Institutions would shut, regardless of having originally opened to primary institution children for the 4 January und being understood as ‘safe’ über the früh Minister und the education and learning Secretary Gavin Williamson just 24 hours prior to (BBC nachrichten 2021a; Booth, Adams, and Pidd 2021). Certain new groups of people jetzt counted as ‘critical’ employees that didn’t bei the zuerst lockdown, consisting of parents working in higher education and financial services (Cabinet Office und Department zum Education 2021). This watered under criteria undermined die order zum schools kommen sie close, through some schools recording attendance punkt 50%, leading kommen sie questions about their safety and security due kommen sie the much higher in-person attendance numbers than recorded bei the first lockdown (Otte 2021; richardson 2021). This change was walked rückseitig by Secretary of State weil das Education Gavin Williamson a few days later on 9 January, with parents advised to keep children weist home if lock are deshalb working from home (Otte 2021). As des late January, england is still in a national lockdown, but public debates about the enforcement and precise meaning des rules oase continued. These include: a pair being fined for driving kommen sie meet zum a to walk that was seen together excessive and ‘not an the spirit’ von the law (later withdrawn) (BBC nachrichten 2021b), conflict over a scotch egg zählen as a considerable meal allowing pubs bei ‘Tier 2’ kommen sie provide alcohol table service (Bland 2020), and the Metropolitan polizei commissioner cressida Dick recently asking zum guidance from die government on out exercise kommen sie be clarified after boris Johnson was spotted to ride bicycle 7 miles away from 10 Downing Street, ns Prime Minister’s residence (Hymas 2021).


2.3. Analysis

The English strategy to controlling the covid19 response after ~ the first wave has actually been extensively panned together being slow, inconsistent and riddled with U-turns (Wardman 2020). This has ongoing into ns autumn and winter of 2020. In fact, according to barrister Adam Wagner covid19 rules in England oase changed 64 times between March 2020 and mid-January 2021 (Syal 2021). This ist despite die well-researched effectiveness of clear, constant management und communications strategies bei reducing and managing threat generally, and more specifically in the situation of covid19 risk management (R. Löfstedt 2011; Wardman 2020).

The government has continually organized to the message that decisions made are ‘following die science’ (Pérez-González 2020). Aligning with clinical expertise is in effective risk communication approach kommen sie ensure post credibility und greater adherence, at least an the quick term (Renn und Levine 1991; Balog-Way and McComas 2020). However, it is clear to seen that science has often been ignored bei decision-making, or selectively favored (Newton 2020; Stevens 2020), one current example among many being die delay betwee SAGE calling weil das a second national lockdown bei September, weil das it only zu be put an place a month later (BBC news 2020c). Publicly scepticism about die extent to which restrictions and rule transforms are insulated native political determinants has hence subsequently grown over the belastung year, shaking die perceived credibility und impartiality des the decisions gift made and damaged trust bei the government strategy (Abbasi 2020; Ahuja 2020; Wardman 2020).

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The UK approach can so be described as not being prepared to be resilient in the face des future covid19 waves or planning ahead weil das them. Frequently measures schutz been put an place auch late, and are often reacting to ns state von affairs fairly than proactively preparing zum the belästigung at hand, as watched with die closure of schools bei January 2021 (Independent SAGE 2021). In this instance, die government to let go a key opportunity to take advantage von the summer period, which taped fewer covid19 cases and deaths and allowed zum greater relaxation von restrictions, kommen sie plan ahead und prepare test-and-tracing facilities and hospitals in spite of scientists’ expectations des a 2nd wave in the fall (Campbell 2020; Lee et al. 2020). In addition, offering better rates of sick pay 보다 those that currently exist for those told kommen sie self-isolate has not occurred unlike in half des all OECD nations (O’Connor 2020). This policy has been placed forward von the OECD (2020) as in important way des ensuring and increasing adherence to self-isolation rules england has one of the lowest statutory sick salary levels in Europe, punkt £95.85 von week, und this has actually contributed to people earning under £20,000 von annum being three zeit less likely zu be able zu isolate compared kommen sie other groups (Atchison et al. 2020; O’Connor 2020).

In the UK media landscape, the narrative has often focused on ‘rule breakers’ und those infringing the government’s laws, recommendations, und exhortations (Reicher 2020; Reicher and Drury 2021). This negative amplification and focus on public decision-making on adherence has, according to Reicher (2021), ignored ns issues damit verbundenen with ns rules themselves: room they reliable enough, und is there sufficient support provided kommen sie promote public adherence? This focus deshalb is an ext likely to result bei a cycle of lower compliance as human being are likely to be influenced by prevailing society norms: if it is perceived as normalerweise to break ns rules then more people wollen be likely zu break them (Cialdini und Goldstein 2004; ventil Bavel et al. 2020). Further, recurring scandals consisting of ‘Cummingsgate’ und Boris Johnson’s current cycle ride lug into sharp focus a cultivation ‘one rule weil das us, another zum them’ mentality, which kann depress intentions zu abide über the rules by reducing a common sense von identity und solidarity (Reicher and Stott 2020; van Bavel et al. 2020; Wardman 2020).

Based on die deep inconsistency and U-turns, bad planning ahead, reactive policy implementation, a weak security net an place kommen sie promote adherence, a prevailing narrative highlighting non-compliance und a shrinking shared identity betwee policy makers and the public, the authors would argue die signs are that the UK federal government has not put bei place in effective risk management strategie on COVID-19. This is evidenced many clearly an the UK having actually one von the highest death tolls bei Europe, pass 100,000 on 13 january (Barr, Davis, and Duncan 2021).


3.1. Post-lockdown and summer strategy

France saw a tailing off des new covid-19 cases bei mid-May, and on 10 July die ‘State des Health Emergency’ was lifted, relaxing constraints dramatically and leaving an place only rules on physics distancing (Mazoue 2020). Cases started raising again from august onwards, und by late september the government collection local covid19 rules centrally und created ‘Enhanced alarm zones’ and ‘Maximum alarm zones’ (République Française 2020). These ‘Maximum alert zones’ signify locations where over there are much more than 250 cases über 100,000 residents, an ext than 100 cases über 100,000 larger residents, and where 30% von those an intensive treatment units space there for covid-19 related reasons and allowed for a more limited localised lockdown (République Française 2020).


3.2. Autumn und winter lockdown strategies

On 23 September, die French health minister, Olivier Véran, declared hinweisen short notice the stadt of Marseille together a ‘Maximum alert zone’, as the criteria described over had been met (Rof 2020). This decision was harshly criticised über the at-the-time first Deputy Mayor des Marseille Benoît Payan, who suggested that these new measures were ‘an affront’, bring away ‘without consultation’ (LCI 2020). Despite paris being placed an the ‘Maximum alarm zone’ nur two weeks danach on 5 October und case rates boosting dramatically, chairman Emmanuel Macron only announced a new second national lockdown on die 28 October, starting on die 30 October until punkt least 1 December (Le Monde 2020). This lockdown was deemed lighter 보다 that experienced bei March, v President Macron stating that ‘schools will stay open, work will be able zu continue, parenting homes und retirement homes tun können be visited’ (Le Monde 2020).

On 24 November, chairman Macron announced that die lockdown would certainly be lifted on fünfzehn December, and be replaced über a nightly curfew from 9pm kommen sie 7am if ns health situation improved (Macron 2020b). This curfew timing was changed kommen sie 8pm and 6am top top the fünfzehn December with the exception des the 24 December (République Française 2021). Additionally, ‘non-essential’ businesses to be allowed kommen sie reopen from 28 november (Macron 2020b). This was despite the case rate notfall being at die level die government had actually set zu consider relaxing restrictions, set punkt 5,000 instances a day and around 2,500 to 3,000 intensive care patients (Berrod und Gallet 2020; Macron 2020b). Ns relaxation on 15 December allowed zum the ende of the stay-at-home order, ns public zu move freely bolzen regions von France and hotels kommen sie reopen; however, restaurants and bars would stay closed, and although travel und personal holidays to winter resorts to be allowed, ski lifts und facilities would certainly be closed to die general public (Directorate des Legal and Administrative information (Prime Minister) 2021).

On 10 December, ureigensten Minister Jean Castex announced die further relaxation von many limitations specifically over ns Christmas period, with families des up zu 6 adults allowed kommen sie meet und move freely, und a wide-ranging trial and error regime put in place ahead des the easing von restrictions, however new Year was so put under curfew (Berrod and Gallet 2020). It was widely accepted bei the French media that france had among die least restrictive Christmas lockdown plans, with ureigensten Minister Castex rationalising this decision von stating ‘Christmas rectal a unique place an our lebt and in our traditions’ (Mansour 2020). Generally, it was found that die French have widely accepted und followed ns restrictions, v 83% of those inquiry stating lock would remain within the Christmas restrictions, und 92% in ~ the neu Year’s eve rules (Santé publique frankreich 2020).

On 28 December, frankreich recorded 364 new deaths native COVID-19 an a 24-hour period und the government convened a neu ‘Defence Council’ kommen sie discuss potential neu restrictions an the face von rising cases (Le Figaro und AFP 2020). ~ above 22 December, the Scientific council on covid19 made it clean to the government the there möchte be a ‘probable <…> uncontrollable’ rise in COVID-19 cases bei January (Franceinfo und AFP 2020). As a result, 3 policy options were proffered by the clinical Council ~ above COVID-19: (1) a strict lockdown native 28 December an the most affected areas; (2) a ‘deferred’ response in early january that ist ‘adapted to ns increase an infections native the ende of die year’, which would certainly be a reactive response and ‘limit society or economic tasks <…> that lead zu greater contamination zum better targeting des restrictions’, or (3) a ‘later an answer aimed punkt limiting ns effects des a new increase an cases’ which would certainly consist von ‘accumulating limit measures, walk up kommen sie a prolonged lockdown’, with ns warning the this der dritte tag response ‘presents ns risk of intervening too late und then lead zu more severe, long and restrictive procedures than those carried into location earlier’ (Conseil scientifique covid-19 2020, 8–9).

Despite this clean advice from ns Scientific board of directors on COVID-19, Olivier Véran announced just a potential increase bei the length von the curfew on 29 December to anfang at 6pm in certain areas but refused zu put in place a der dritte tag lockdown, stating ‘we do notfall want zu confine weist this stage’ (Franceinfo 2020b). Contrary to this response from national government, several neighborhood leaders, particularly those native the großartiger Est region, called for a neighborhood lockdown on the same day which according to die mayor of nancy Mathieu belanglos was ‘inevitable’, and President des the cool Est region Jean Rottner hoped that ‘the decision will take place tomorrow, and that us won’t schutz to wait another week’ (Le Figaro und AFP 2020).

The government has so delayed the reopening des public spaces such together museums and cinemas, initially billed kommen sie reopen ~ above 7 January, but schools und nurseries reopened the day (Miller, Abboud, and Beesley 2021). Despite scientific findings reflecting that the neu Variant von Concern 202012/1 is more contagious and just as transmissible in children as adults, on Sunday 10 januar the Minister for Education Jean-Michel Blanquer stated that ‘nothing zu sein excluded’, but punkt this time die closing schools ‘is not envisaged’ in spite of pressure from movie critics (Pech 2021). This policy approach is quite unique contrasted to ns rest des Europe, and has been defined as a political an option made by Minister zum Education Blanquer (Bost 2021).

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In the new Year, general public fears around a spike in new covid-19 cases were exemplified über the French manager General des Health jérôme Salomon. Wie man talking about ns potential effect von Christmas on covid19 case rates on 2 januar to the Journal du Dimanche, he declared that ‘the trend is already worrying’ (Enault and Paillou 2021). Regardless of more und more scientists und doctors calling zum a new lockdown as instance rates increased, as des 13 januar the government continue zu distance us from die idea von a new ‘national confinement’ (Vaillant 2021). Chairman Macron, bei his new Year’s address, was hopeful yet did underscore the problems facing France in the short-term, ‘The zuerst months des the year wollen be an overwhelming and, hinweisen least until die spring, ns epidemic will blieb weigh heavily on die life of our country’ (Berdah 2020).